Deloitte Consumer Spending Index continues growth

Deloitte's Consumer Spending Index, which evaluates tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices, was up 1.8 points in March, marking only the third time the index has risen in the past 12 months – a good sign for retailers banking on better sales this year. Consumers aren't quite back to their pre-recession spending habits though, and Deloitte was quick to note that several factors may be impeding further spending growth.

Most notably, real incomes fell 0.1 percent in February even though consumer spending grew and is up 0.3 percent this year. Additionally, the savings rate has declined from 4.7 percent to 3.7, which accounts to approximately $110 billion in consumer spending. Without that drop-off, consumer spending may have fallen. Real consumer spending is up 1.8 percent.

Additionally, commodity prices are also rising, which impacts how much disposable income consumers have to spend on retail. Gasoline prices, for example, rose 4 cents last week and are up 68 cents as a whole since mid-December. Food prices are also climbing, and the more consumers spend on these two staples, the less they will have to spend at retail locations.

"The warmer weather is helping consumers shake off the winter doldrums, but they remain vigilant about their pocketbooks, particularly in the face of rising gas prices this spring," said Alison Paul, vice chairman of Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader. "In our third annual spring survey of U.S. households, consumers told us they are feeling slightly better about the economy and their finances, compared to a year ago."

Deloitte also noted that mobile devices and the internet are becoming more important to the retail sector. Consumers are using these two communication channels to research products and services before they buy. However, not all retailers are leveraging these mediums, and merchants may be able to get a leg up on the competition by integrating the web and mobile into promotional strategies.

As recent data from comScore has found, more than 104 million Americans now own smartphones. To put that into perspective, that is approximately half of the country's mobile subscriber base.

American retail industry to hit $4 trillion in 2012

Whether merchants are a part of an international chain such as Walmart or Target or they own a small one-off specialty store, they are a part of the American retail sector, which Research and Markets anticipates will hit upward of $4 trillion this year.

The research group's projections include auto dealers, web sellers and catalog retailers, although it does not count food and drinking establishments such as bars. Three key things will drive retail demand this year, according to Research and Markets: Personal income, consumer confidence and interest rates. Merchants need to watch these three signals as they plan for the year ahead.

"The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient supply chain management and effective merchandising and marketing," the report adds. "Large companies have advantages in purchasing, distribution and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by selling unique merchandise, providing superior customer service, offering a distinctive shopping experience or serving a local market."

Worldwide, the retail industry has flourished, although it isn't without some hiccups. For example, Australian retailers have to adjust to increased competition from internet sellers.

Consumer spending experiences biggest increase since July

According to new data from the Commerce Department, consumer spending in the United States was up 0.8 percent in February – the biggest monthly increase recorded since last July.

While that is good news for many retail merchants, the report was also quick to note that the income of many Americans barely grew and the saving rate fell to the lowest point since 2010. This means that the improvement may have just been a temporary growth rather than a long-term trend.

"The report led economists to upwardly revise their economic growth estimates for the January-March quarter," Retailing Today reports. "Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, now expects annual growth for the first quarter to be around 2.5 percent, compared with earlier estimates of about 2 percent."

Additionally, many economists were quick to point out that rising gas prices may have contributed to the growth in retail sales, rather than the actual purchase of goods.

In other parts of the world, similar improvements were noted. For example, the Australia Bureau of Statistics recently reported that domestic retail sales improved 0.2 percent during February.

New gift card laws in New Jersey makes the offering less appealing to retailers

Gift cards have been a huge boon for the retail industry over the past few years. According to the National Retail Federation, approximately eight in 10 Americans gave gift cards as presents over the 2011 holiday season, with shoppers spending $155.43 on the gift type. Overall, more than $27.8 billion was estimated to be spent on gift cards last year, hitting pre-recession levels.

Gift cards are particularly popular among retailers for two reasons. First, few people spend the exact amount on their gift cards and frequently will spend more than the allotted amount. Secondly, if shoppers don't spend the specified value, that's essentially free money for the retailer.

However, retailers in New Jersey are being forced to contend with new legislation that is discouraging many from even offering gift cards in the state. As New Jersey 101.5 notes, the bill states that after two years, instead of leftover gift card balances going to the company, the state will collect the remaining value. This means retailers need to go through a quagmire of red tape to collect this money, which adds several administrative costs that wouldn't make the process worth it.

Retailers would also need to begin collecting shoppers' ZIP code information to keep track of which buyers are from New Jersey to help the state collect the money, another administrative obstacle course that makes the sales of such products more difficult.

While the bill is two years old, the state just recently began acting on it, collecting millions of dollars in balances in 2011 alone. Rather than deal with the issue, many retail brands and third-party gift card networks are simply pulling their products out of local stores. American Express has stopped selling gift cards in the state, and many retailers are considering doing away with their own gift card programs.

"We're fearful that this could be just the tip of the iceberg," John Holub, president of the New Jersey Retail Merchants Association, told the news source. "That many more retailers and gift card issuers could also decide that they can no longer operate in the state."

Holub believes the widespread abandonment of gift cards could have a negative impact on the retail sector – no longer will consumers head into store with a gift card and spend a few extra dollars as well.

Fewer Americans looking to work in retail

The retail sector has long been heralded as a creator of jobs, especially during the economic recession that eliminated so many employment opportunities. However, according to a new report from Kronos' Retail Labor Index, fewer Americans are looking to get involved in the retail sector.

The Index, which Retailing Today describes as being "defined as the ratio of hires to applications within a given month, expressed as a percentage," was observed at 4.3 percent. While this is still a solid number, it is the second reading higher than 4 percent and only the third reading of 4.0 or higher in the past four years.

Kronos' sample noted the number of applications received by retailers fell 10 percent to approximately 784,900 in March, down 250,000 compared to the same time last year – a time applications hit near-record highs.

"With overall labor market conditions improving, potential applicants are likely seeking job opportunities in sectors outside of retail, consistent with the recent declining trend in applications for retail positions," said Chris Varvares, senior managing director and co-founder of Macroeconomic Advisers.

High street sales up in Australia

The Australian retail sector continued to grow in February, although the sluggish global economy and increased competition from internet merchants suggest 2012 could be another tough one for local companies.

Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest retail sales grew 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.3 percent increase in January. Seasonally adjusted, approximately $20.98 billion was spent on retail, compared to the $20.95 billion the previous month. The slight rise in sales in February was on par with what many economists predicted.

"This was in line with expectations," Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican told the Sydney Morning Herald. "There was no sign of any improvement on February … It looks like another tough start to the year for the retail sector."

A number of forces have impacted the local retail sector. Falling consumer confidence has forced many Australians to be more cost-conscious and peel back on spending. The general economic conditions haven't helped the matter, with many households being forced to spend more money on basic commodities rather than retail goods. Finally, many Australians have begun shopping online and importing retail purchases from foreign retailers, rather than supporting local merchants.

Some big names in the Australian retail sector, such as David Jones, have been hit hard by these changes. Last month, David Jones noted first-half profits declined 19.6 percent from the previous year to $85 million. The company specifically pointed to online shopping and importation of goods as contributing factors and warned investors that full-year profits could take a 40 percent hit as the company reacts to these changes.

The retail sector performed better in some regions of Australia than others. In Queensland, for example, retail sales were up 1.5 percent and in Western Australia, they increased 1 percent. Conversely, sales were down 0.6 percent in New South Wales and 0.4 percent in Victoria, the ABS data revealed.

"Global ructions driving heightened caution coupled with the strong Aussie encouraging purchases abroad will keep retail sales soft," Moody's Economy.com analyst Katrina Ell added.

In addition to altering store operations, many Australian retailers are rallying behind legislation that would lower the importation threshold. Because consumers don't have to pay taxes on imported goods worth less than $1,000, many simply buy low-cost products abroad and then import them rather than paying higher domestic prices.

Retailers note increase in shoplifting

While economic conditions are slowly improving, a considerable number of Americans are still without jobs or any means to support themselves. This, in turn, has lead to an increase in shoplifting, and retailers should reconsider their store operations in response.

Scott Stanton, the owner of County Market in Indiana, has noted a significant lift in product theft. It's frequently difficult to make the appropriate changes because of how sporadic shoplifting can be – one week there are no instances, the next there could be a dozen. Additionally, people from all walks of life are stealing food, clothing and other products – there is no way to profile thieves.

Fortunately, other shoppers are noticing and are helping retail merchants fight against these thieves.

"You'd be surprised. Customers will come and tell you when they see something," Stanton told Commercial-News. "They understand if you're stealing from our store, that customer realizes they're also stealing from them. It all trickles down."

In North America, it frequently isn't the shopper that brands need to worry about. According to the Center for Retail Research, employee theft was the biggest source of concern for shoplifting.

A question of finances and retail merchandising

For suggestions on retail merchandising operations, companies may want to consider the differences between two major stores' earning calls.

Sears and Kohl's have both seen better times in the retail space, but it's how their respective company heads discuss their issues and possible solutions that proves useful for retailers, Home Textiles Today explains.

Kevin Mansell, CEO of Kohl's, said that the company's problems stem from its lack of retail merchandising. According to the source, Mansell explains that Kohl's needs to infuse excitement back into the merchandising, marketing and promotional pitch.

By contrast, Eddie Lampert of Sears approaches the problem in finance terms, citing the issue as a "profit problem, not a liquidity issue nor an asset problem," the store notes. However, Home Textiles Today explains that fixing the finances is not tantamount to fixing all problems.

"Kohl's will figure out its problems. Its over-emphasis on percentage-off promotions is maxed out and needs to be adjusted," the site writes. "But Sears is a different story altogether. Kohl's knows that if it fixes the store, the finances will follow. Sears wants to fix the finances. Period."

Retail sales up in Canada

The Canadian retail sector is off to a bright start in 2012, with a Statistics Canada report released on Thursday noting sales were up during the first month of the year.

While January sales didn't quite meet the expectations of economists, they were up 0.5 percent to C$38.9 billion. Many industry experts projected an overall sales gain of 1.8 percent for the first month of 2012, a number which the sector couldn't meet.

"Canadian consumers are expected to slow down spending habits in the months and years to come, according to economists, as they manage their record-high household debt loads," Nasdaq notes. "Consumer spending helped Canada's economy recover faster than most of its Group of Seven peers following the financial crisis, powered by record-low borrowing rates."

Categories doing particularly well include general merchandise stores, retail department chains and apparel.

The retail sector has similarly been improving in the United States, with many experts anticipating a boom in sales around the Easter holiday.

NRF expects hopping sales this spring due to Easter

The Easter holiday will buoy sales in the retail industry in April, with a new report from the National Retail Federation suggesting total consumer expenditures to reach $16.8 billion for the occasion. The study, conducted by the NRF and BIGinsight, found the average American will spend approximately $145.28 on apparel, candy, decorations and other retail staples for Easter, up from the $131.04 expended last year.

"Though the price of gas is on everyone's mind, Easter is one of the few holidays some consumers are willing to stretch their budgets, especially because many children look forward to treats and new outfits on Easter morning," said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. "Retailers will make sure to offer plenty of promotions on candy, apparel, food and decorations in the coming weeks for eager holiday shoppers."

Specialty retailers selling clothes will be the biggest beneficiaries, with nearly half of survey respondents (48.5 percent) planning to take advantage of spring sales to pick up the latest seasonal fashions and accessories. Total apparel spending is slated to hit $3 billion during the Easter time frame.

Of course, candy will also be a hot commodity – 89.3 percent of survey takers will be spending big on confectionery and other sweet treats. Overall, more than $2 billion will be devoted to the purchase of chocolate eggs and jelly beans. The average person will spend $20.35 on candy (up from $18.35 last year) and $26.11 on apparel (an increase from $21.51 from last year).

Outside of these two main staples, there are other core retail products that will garner some consumer dollars. Easter meals, flowers, decorations, greeting cards – these goods will similarly be top purchases for a significant number of Americans.

"Beautiful weather conditions coupled with a slight lift in consumer confidence will likely be a boon to the Easter holiday this year as consumers begin to seek out new spring merchandise for their home or garden, and even their wardrobe," said BIGinsight Consumer Insights director Pam Goodfellow. "It remains to be seen though, if this spending momentum will carry into the coming months …"

Many retailers thought the rising cost of everyday necessities, such as fuel or groceries, would cause consumers to peel back spending, but that's evidently not the case. Merchants should change up store operations and offer special promotions to encourage Easter shopping.