Retail sector expected to grow 3.4 percent in 2012

For some retailers, 2011 ended on an auspicious note – while sales were up through the end of the final two months of the year, many struggled to profit due to rampant discounting and had to adjust their financial projections as a result.

Still, 2012 is expected to be a booming year for those in the sector. According to a new report from the National Retail Foundation, while high unemployment rates and the uncertain economic environment will continue to impact sales, the industry is expected to grow a marginal 3.4 percent throughout the 12-month period.

This year, retailers are forecasted to generate $2.53 trillion. While that's slightly lower than the 4.7 percent recovery observed in 2011, it is still an improvement, which is crucial considering the economic climate. At the same time, economists estimate that real U.S. GDP will grow approximately 2.1 to 2.4 percent.

As NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay notes, the retail sector has been on the forefront of the economic recovery for the past 18 months. The sector has created hundreds of thousands of jobs, encouraged further consumer spending and provided a variety of investor opportunities during this timeframe.

"Our 2012 forecast is a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy. Retailers have played a key role in driving growth, but to continue this momentum we need Washington to act on proposals that will spur job creation and unleash the power of the private sector," Shay explains.

Several factors are contributing to the recovery of the booming retail sector. Unemployment reached a three-year low at the close of the 2011 calendar year, the annual income of many Americans is on the rise thanks to Congressional cuts in payroll taxes and the easing of lending standards is encouraging many consumers to spend more money.

According to a separate NRF report, the retail sector is expected to come into full bloom in spring. Container traffic, which shows how much inventory companies are stocking, was observed to be flat in January compared to last year. However, in March, this figure is expected to jump 10 percent year-over-year.

Low Q1 cargo shipments suggest tempered expectations

Imported retail container traffic is anticipated to be flat this winter compared to the same time last year, suggesting many retailers aren't expecting big sales through the first few months of the year.

According to a new report released Thursday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, U.S. ports are expected to handle approximately 1.21 million 20-foot Equivalent Units, up by 0.1 percent. February is expected to be the slowest month of the year at 1.06 million TEU.

However, this spring is projected to see significant year-over-year improvements, with double-digit improvements beginning in March.

"We're headed into the slow season for cargo shipments, but forecasts indicate that retailers will be stocking up this spring in anticipation of a moderate recovery as the year progresses," NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said.

It's important to note that while cargo imports don't translate directly into sales, when retail merchants expect surges of activity, they tend to order more product to take advantage of the situation.

Survey predicts growth of minorities’ purchasing power

In preparing for the new year, store operations will want to take stock of their consumer bases. Who are their key demographics? What are the needs, and what are the best ways to reach them?

A recent study from the University of Georgia's Selig Center for Economic Growth may prove insightful to retailers. The research predicts that Latino, black and Asian American shoppers will spend $3.5 trillion on goods and services in 2015, representing their growing purchasing power as a consumer segment.

The San Francisco Chronicle notes that retailers such as Macy's are taking the news in stride by working with goods suppliers who specialize in these markets. Macy's cosmetics, homes goods and clothes departments will all receive makeovers to better appeal to these groups.

Furthermore, the growth in buying power also signifies a growth in the power of minority-owned businesses. The source added that Macy's predicts its sales of products manufactured by minority- and women-owned businesses will surpass $1 billion in the next two years.

Retail sales up in November/December, foot traffic down

According to a new survey released by ShopperTrak on Monday, overall sales during the November-December holiday period were up. Interestingly enough, however, in-store foot traffic was down during the same time frame, which could suggest a number of different things to retailers.

Holiday sales were up 3.5 percent compared to the two-month period in 2010, with Americans spending upward of $250 billion. While this fell short of ShopperTrak's projected 3.7 percent increase, it still bodes well for the retail industry, which had observed relaxed sales leading into November.

Thanksgiving weekend saw the biggest lift in sales – year-over-year sell-through figures were observed at a 4.4 percent increase. However, this may have negatively impacted sales through the remainder of December – many consumers had to reassess their shopping budgets.

Additionally, the fact that Hanukkah didn't fall until later in the month also hindered sales in the early part of December. Sales did make a dramatic comeback leading up to Christmas, however, and the week before the holiday, a 14.4 percent lift in spending was observed.

Conversely, in-store traffic was down 3.1 percent year-over-year. There are a number of ways retailers could choose to interpret this. For one, it could suggest more Americans are forgoing crowded shopping malls in favor of online shopping. If this is true, it highlights the importance of offering an online retail platform to consumers.

ShopperTrak offers another possible explanation for the decline in foot traffic.

"We know stores saw less foot-traffic and increases in sales during the holiday season, indicating consumers were focused and took fewer trips," Bill Martin, ShopperTrak founder, told RetailingToday. "Retailers who tracked their foot-traffic daily better understood and predicted shopper trends and made the most of every opportunity that walked through their doors with appropriate inventory and staffing adjustments."

Separate data from comScore does suggest online shopping reached new highs this holiday season. Ecommerce spending topped $35 billion for the two-month period, marking a dramatic 15 percent improvement over the same time frame last year. Black Friday marked the greatest year-over-year improvement, with spending surging 26 percent on the day.

Consumer spending fails to meet retailer expectations

A new report released by the Commerce Department suggests consumer spending may not be as rosy as many analysts projected. While personal spending did grow over the course of the month, it was less than many economists forecasted.

Consumer spending edged up by a narrow 0.1 percent, a slim number that many retailers may find disappointing considering the season and after a 0.4 percent increase in October. As Bloomberg notes, a panel of economists predicted at least a 0.3 percent rise over the course of the 30-day period.

"In the absence of a significant pickup in income, we won't see a big boost in spending," Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York, told the news source. "The momentum will slow in the fourth quarter, but the economy is still growing."

The average projection ranged from increases as slim as 0.2 percent to growth as big as 0.6 percent, with none of the analysts forecasting a 0.1 percent increase.

Still, it's hard to be upset over any improvements. Retailers looking to bolster sales further may want to consider offering discounts and other incentives.

Economist: Retailers will have opportunity in 2012, but growth will be slow

While many retail brands broke sales records over the 2011 holiday season, some merchants found November and December promotions ended up hurting their bottom line. Merchants need to learn from the holiday season and take advantage of opportunities when they arise, but should not be overly aggressive.

Kimberely Ritter-Martinez, an economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, said 2012 will be full of said opportunities, although it will be a slow-moving strategic year. Debt will continue to saddle consumer spending, but optimism is increasing. Promotions are key to reaching these consumers, but they must be done in a savvy way.

"Barring a meltdown in Europe, the U.S. should do well in 2012 … It will be stronger than 2011," she told Apparel News. "2012 will be a year of fairly slow growth."

Planning is crucial. The retailers that succeeded over the 2011 holiday season were the ones that spread their discounts over the two-month period, whereas the ones that succumbed were those that launched their heaviest campaigns over the Black Friday weekend, Bloomberg recently reported.

Holiday promotions cut into retail profits

The 2011 holiday season proved to be even bigger than the previous year, but retailer gains may have missed their potential due to incessant price-cutting strategies employed by merchants as they tried to drive more customers into stores.

Overall, retail sales were up 3.4 percent at the 22 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters, beating the 3.3 percent forecast by industry analysts. However, Alison Paul – a retail sector leader at Deloitte in Chicago – noted that promotion and discount usage affected the overall profitability at a number of retail merchants, with several reducing their earnings outlooks in response.

It all comes down to proper retail brand management. Businesses that planned their holiday promotions in advance and spread them throughout the two-month holiday period were able to perform up to expectations, while those that didn't suffered. In particular, those that pulled out all the stops for Black Friday weekend had difficulty generating attention for the remainder of the season.

"The retailers that are still standing are the ones that did their homework several months ago and made decisions about promoting in waves," Paul told Bloomberg. "Getting promotions right is an art form."

Some major retail names were saddled with holiday losses. For example, Aeropostale posted a 10 percent drop off in same-store sales, while total revenue declined 5 percent. Gap reported similar losses across its entire chain – including Old Navy and Banana Republic – with sales declining 4 percent.

"We expected December to be highly promotional, and while we competed aggressively across our brands, our performance was below our expectations," Gap chief executive Glenn Murphy added.

On the flip side, several brands enjoyed big success. Limited Brands – the parent company of Bath and Body Works and Victoria's Secret – saw a sales jump of 7 percent. Meanwhile, Hot Topic and The Buckle observed 1.2 percent and 5 percent improvements, respectively.

If retailers struggled to capitalize on the 2011 holiday season, it's crucial they learn from their mistakes as they develop their marketing campaigns for the new year. Merchants should remember to take the bottom line into consideration as they plan promotional events and give customers discounts.

Teach employees to think like the owner

The new year is a time for store operations operators to review the past 12 months and determine where a retailer can and should go next.

Shep Hyken offered retail professionals a few suggestions to focus on this year in a recent article for the website Business2Community. His topic of choice: customer service. No matter the company, its finances or products, it should always be striving to be No. 1 – and customers are the road to the top.

Customer service begins with a retailer's employees. No matter the position or department a worker belongs to, they should treat the business as if it bore their name. This level of dedication will shine through in every task and interaction with customers.

"You may not be the owner, but you should care like you're the owner," Hyken explains. "Not all owners or executives make great leaders, but the ones that are should be emulated. Watch how they take pride in how they deal with customers and employees. Then copy them. Act and care like you are the owner."

Enhancing customer satisfaction is crucial to securing more sales

Retail merchants that are paying more than mere lip service to customer service are on the receiving end of more sales, according to a new report from ForeSee Results.

The customer satisfaction analysis firm recently polled a number of consumers to see which retailers were doing the best job of meeting their shoppers' expectations. Amazon.com was the 2011 leader during the holiday shopping period, charting No. 1 with 88 points. Avon, JCPenney, QVC, Apple and VistaPrint were other leaders.

At the other end of the spectrum, Overstock.com ranked as the worst at 72 points. Gap followed closely behind at 73 points.

"Customer satisfaction is a leading indicator of consumer spending, and the bump in the Index is good news for online retailers," Larry Freed, president and CEO of ForeSee, said in a statement relayed by ABC. "Unemployment is down, consumer confidence is up, and holiday retail sales are up from last year."

Retailers looking to capture more sales this year – particularly online – need to reconsider their customer service practices. Regardless of whether they are available through desktop computers, mobile devices or brick-and-mortar stores, they should have a flexible and easy-to-understand customer service regimen.

Consumers trade in their gift cards for cold, hard cash

Gift cards are a favorite product of many retail merchants because they ensure consumers will come back and spend that money – and maybe even a bit extra – in-store.

However, many consumers are also trading these gift cards to third-party resellers for some extra cash. December 26 is national Gift Card Exchange Day, an annual one-day event where resellers pay the highest amount to refill their inventory. It works for both parties involved – consumers get money for whatever they need, while resellers can get the cards into the hands of people who will actually use them. 

As International Business Times notes, a substantial number of gift cards go unused throughout the course of the year. Experts' estimates suggest between 2005 and 2011, $41 billion worth of gift cards will have gone unspent.

According to a separate report from the National Retail Federation, shoppers were anticipated to spend approximately $27.8 billion on gift cards for the 2011 holiday season. Digital gift cards that could be emailed to recipients made them even more popular, as they made for better last-minute gifts.